Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Prediction

What the hell. It's already late January.

It will be Clinton vs McCain, with McCain winning the Presidency.

This does not reflect a personal preference, nor a careful study of the candidates and issues. It's all gut.

Obama and Clinton are the only viable Democrats at this time. Edwards is too far behind and simply lacks the exciting appeal of being black or female. Of course, Obama and Clinton have solid messages as well but in this race, this year, the white boy is out of the running regardless. Obama will then falter, as more voters use Clinton's supposed experience and depth to excuse their distrust of a junior senator of a certain demographic.

The GOP likes McCain despite his lack of appeal amongst hard-core conservatives. They respect his service and his relatively unwavering positions. Huckabee will flame out soon, and McCain simply has more gravitas than the good-looking Mormon or the baggage-laden Mr. 9-11 -- and will be a safer bet against any Democrat.

Come November, uncertain times will compel many people to vote security -- not national security, on which Mrs. Clinton is sufficient, but at a personal level. They will waver between making history with a woman President, and holding off against what they perceive as personal weaknesses that a future female candidate might not share. McCain will seem at the time a safer choice, even if for many the real choice was subconsciously sexist.

I Have Spoken.

1 comment:

Paula said...

I think it will be C v McC as well, but I'm not so sure about McC winning. Lots of Repubs say they will NOT vote for him because of his position on amnesty and the tax cuts. Then again, loads of lefties hate Hillary, so maybe you're right. He doesn't make me feel the least bit safe though. Maybe I'm ageist.